China's Economy Growth -- Noteworthy

What a coincident: I was reading the newspaper this morning on the subway and a piece of infomation caught my eye. It was an analysis on China's international trade during the first half year of 2007. And then when I arrived my desk, there is an email in my mail box estimating that in 2 years China will pass Germany and becomes the 3rd world economy body (after US and JP).

The article on the newspaper listed the numbers about the international trade during the first half year. The growth rate is 23.3% comparing to 2006 Jan-June. From the percentages of the exported goods, more manufactures are done in China than before. And that is a good sign. The article also states that the adjustment on the export tax might cause the companies to speed up and export their goods before the adjustment takes effect in the second half of the year. Also the fact that RMB's exchange rate goes up also affect the overall number.

And here is a copy of the email I've got this morning about China's economy. It is in Chinese. The several main points are:
1) During the first half year, China's foreign currency savings has reached $1300B; the increase is more than the increase for the year 2006;
2) 2006's GDP has reached 21000BRMB, increased 11.1% which is the highest for the last 12 years and 0.4% higher than the expected number.
3) The economy is growthing too fast and applying the policy to slow down the economy is at the verge.
So it is estimated that by this speed in 2 years, China will become the 3rd lagest economy body world-wide, passing Germany.

中共兩年將超德 成第三大經濟體 白德華/上海報導
　中共官方統計，今年上半年大陸外匯儲備破一．三兆美元，半年增長竟超過去年全年總和，加上相關數據顯示，大陸經濟有過熱跡象，極可能導致緊縮政策一觸即發。此外，中共向上修訂去年國內生產總值（ＧＤＰ）增速達一一．一％，創十二年新高，預計今年總產值將逼近德國，有機會在後年成為世界第三大經濟體。
官方媒體說，按ＧＤＰ總量計算，目前中國排在美、日、德國之後，居全球第四。華爾街日報指出，大陸新公布的去年ＧＤＰ總量已達二．七○五兆美元，已大幅接近德國ＧＤＰ總量。去年德國國內生產總值二．三兆歐元（約三兆美元），但經濟增長僅二．五％，遠低於中國。專家預期說，中國將繼續成為亞洲經濟增長火車頭，有機會在○九年取代德國成為全球第三大經濟體。
繼六月外貿順差再創新高後，大陸近日公布上半年經濟數據顯示，貨幣信貸高增長趨勢不減。專家指出，這表明先前的緊縮措施效果不明顯，一旦十八日公布物價消費增長指數逾四％的話，短期內減免利息稅和加息措施都有可能出台。
大陸今年上半修改出口退稅政策，導致企業拚命出口結匯，也造成六月份外貿順差二六九．一億美元創新高，六月外匯儲備就增加四百億美元，上海申銀萬國證券研究所分析師李慧勇認為，其中可能含有大量熱錢流入。
國泰君安證券研究所研究員伍永剛指出，過快的外儲增長，將使人民幣升值壓力進一步加大。人民幣匯率正頻繁刷新匯改以來新紀錄。六月末，人民幣匯率一美元兌七．六一五五元人民幣，到十一日的報價已到七．五七一二元。